Summer officially begins on June 20 this year, and the latest forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is for a hot and dry summer. This is no surprise as most summers in Montana are, but this coming season is thought to be hotter and drier than normal.
The summer seasonal temperature outlook shows all of the west, including Montana with likely above average temperatures. The area with the most likely above-average temperatures is across the Great Basin and the Central Rockies.
The precipitation outlook is not kind as most of the northwestern and north-central United States, including Montana are leaning toward below normal moisture. The East Coast and desert southwest are leaning toward above normal.
Observations in the Pacific Ocean show that the La Niña weather pattern has ended. There is no La Niña, there is no El Niño. La Niña typically creates hot and dry summer weather across the middle of the country. 2001, 2006 and 2018 were other years where La Niña ended, but the Pacific Ocean was still slightly cooler than normal. 2001 and 2006 showed more variability in rainfall, but 2018 was actually above average for precipitation. Montana's fire season in 2018 was well below average in the number of fires, acres burned and cost to the state.
La Niña and El Niño have an impact on the summer monsoon across the southwestern us. Because there is no La Niña or El Niño heading into the summer, the monsoon high is expected to be about normal. A stronger-than-normal monsoon high usually creates hotter-than-normal temperatures in Montana with more dry thunderstorms producing lightning.
Forecasting is difficult, especially seasonal outlooks. While forecasts are leaning hotter and drier than normal, there are no strong indications of severe wildfire conditions at the moment.
